2026: AI Transitions to Commercialization

In 2026, the artificial intelligence industry reaches a historic turning point. The government work report introduces the concept of creating a new form of intelligent economy, marking a shift in AI strategy from “tool empowerment” to “system restructuring.” This year, AI investment logic transitions from “narrative valuation” to “fundamental valuation,” with the market beginning to value quantifiable investment returns.

Three Core Driving Forces

The focus of AI competition has shifted from parameter contests to a comprehensive system capability comparison, with 2026 viewed as the year of autonomous intelligent agents and the entry year for AI super applications.

Core Driving Logic

1. Token Economy Ignites Demand for Computing Power
   By March 2026, China’s daily token usage exceeded 140 trillion, growing over 1000 times since early 2024. Despite an 83% price increase, the demand for Zhizhu API surged by 400%, indicating a supply-demand imbalance. Real commercial demand is rapidly converting into massive computing power consumption, pushing the computing industry into a phase of comprehensive inflation.

2. Domestic Large Models Cross Critical Point
   Domestic models like DeepSeek-V4 and GLM-5 have rapidly advanced in agent capabilities, supporting complex coding and agent applications. The API prices of domestic models are a tiny fraction of those of top overseas models, allowing them to capture global market share and benefit from the token explosion.

3. Significant Capital Expenditure Increases by Global Cloud Providers
   Google, Meta, and Microsoft have all significantly raised their full-year capital expenditure in their quarterly reports, with Google providing guidance for 2027 for the first time. The overseas demand for computing power has exceeded expectations, opening up incremental markets for domestic computing supply chains.

4. Fundamental Logic Restructuring in the Industry
   The storage industry has undergone fundamental changes: global storage manufacturers have signed long-term supply agreements with major cloud providers for 3-5 years, locking in price and volume, shifting the industry from cyclical stocks to growth stocks.

First Quarter Performance Validation

The AI computing sector delivered an unexpectedly strong performance in Q1 2026, with a median gross margin of 27.64%, and R&D expenses significantly higher than the overall A-share market.

Data Source: Wind

Core Stock List (by Segment)

1. Computing Power Base (Strongest Beneficiary, High Earnings Certainty)

2. AI Cloud and Computing Power Leasing (Highest Price Elasticity)

3. AI Large Models and Platforms (Ecosystem Entry Points)

4. AI + Application Software (First to Realize Performance)

5. AI + Gaming/Entertainment (First to Explode)

Key Trends for 2026

1. AI Super Applications Entry Year
   Tianfeng Securities predicts that AI has transitioned from a technological competition to a battle for super application entry points, focusing on major internet companies (ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent) and core ecosystem targets.

2. Commercialization Year for Autonomous Intelligent Agents (AI Agent)
   AI agents are evolving from chat tools to productivity tools embedded in business processes like financial risk control and code review, with the market size for industrial-grade AI agents expected to exceed 10 billion in 2026.

3. Implementation of the “AI+” Special Action
   The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has clarified three major directions: strengthening computing power supply, promoting software intelligence upgrades, and expanding high-value application scenarios, using “computing power vouchers” and “model vouchers” to reduce transformation costs for SMEs.

4. Comprehensive Inflation in the Computing Power Supply Chain
   Domestic chips, cloud computing power, and computing power leasing have all entered a price increase cycle, with usable computing power itself becoming the most core scarce asset.

5. New Phase in US-China Model Competition
   Domestic large models have partially surpassed overseas counterparts in Chinese understanding and cost-effectiveness, with US companies beginning to adopt Chinese open-source models at a cost of only 5%-10% of US models.

Investment Thesis Summary

Core Risk Alerts

One-Sentence Core Logic

2026 is the turning point year for AI to shift from “narrative-driven” to “performance-driven.” Daily token usage soared to 140 trillion (a thousand times growth in two years), and the Zhizhu API saw three price increases while still in high demand (+400%), with the computing power supply chain entering a phase of “comprehensive inflation.” Q1 sector performance was fully validated—Zhongji Xuchuang net profit +262%, Industrial Fulian net profit +102%, Xiechuang Data +343%. Google, Microsoft, and other cloud providers have raised capital expenditure expectations, and the storage industry has signed long-term contracts locking in supply and demand for 3-5 years. Domestic chips have crossed the threshold from “usable” to “good to use,” with models like DeepSeek-V4 achieving Day 0 adaptation for ten domestic chips. AI investment logic has returned to its commercial essence—focusing on “true applications” with scenarios, data, and paid closed loops.